COVID-19? Ask an Actuary

What is the future of our COVID-19 pandemic? How long will we be at risk of it invading our community? What will the social and economic consequences of the crisis be?

As I’ve so often advised, “Ask an actuary.”

Yet this particular actuary has not seen the data he would need for knowing the facts, built a reliable projection model, nor studied this immensely complex issue enough to respond much beyond knowing when to roll his eyes at the overly optimistic political grandstanding that predicts zero from some miracle just around the corner or to dismiss out-of-hand the apocalyptic prophesies that see this as the end of the world as we’ve known it.

From the beginning of March, I’ve wanted to at least be in a position to bring those extreme boundaries in closer toward at least some degree of confidence in any response I myself might give. Now, let me at least begin to collect some of what I would need to do that, with an eye toward having some answers before the whole experience is history.

So, then (as will be edited and added to daily from now until further notice) …

Disclaimer — Any analysis, comment, conclusions or other content herein is completely of a personal nature intended for the private use of the author. It should not be represented nor used as actuarial or other professional advice. Links to other websites do not connote endorsement of the content of those sources.

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