COVID-19 — Personal Notes

World


— Global Trends —

— New COVID-19 Cases – Global —

The 5th-degree polynomial trend line suggests mid-April as having given us a pause at a temporary plateau before continuing to increase the daily count of new cases. This is as good a time as any to point out that I don’t really use linear regression, n-th degree polynomial fits or any similar technique to constitute legitimate actuarial projection methodology. In other words, treat this and any other “trend” line shown on my charts as merely a visual aid, unless and until I do reach my goal of developing a projection model. In this case, not that new cases won’t do what that 5-th degree polynomial fit suggests, but that when the new case count does rise — as I do expect it to do — it will be due to factors other than those implicit in a polynomial fit. Ask me why, if you care to fall asleep. [ARL 2020 April 20 CDST 18:54]

We’re looking for this graph to peak —

Global - Cases New & Deaths New - 04.20

— New COVID-19 Deaths – Global —

Like with the new cases graph, we’re looking for the daily number of deaths to peak —

Global - Deaths New - 04.20

World — Cases: Linear Scale
World Cases Linear 2020.04.11
World COVID-19 cases through 2020 Apr 11. As I stated upon encountering the first COVID-19 logarithmic graph I encountered in late March 2020 — the graph that finally triggered me into launching this project — I generally find linear graphs to be of little value for phenomenon such as this pandemic. Other means of display — logarithmic scale, chart of changes in counts day to day, graph of “days to double,” et cetera — can better graphically display trends, notably the acceleration or deceleration we look for in this exercise. However, we will be finding some use for linear charts during the course of this project. For instance, shortly I will be enhancing this particular chart to segregate out the portion of the curve attributable to particular countries; for that investigation, while a logarithmic scale should still be used to point out varying trends, the linear scale is more apropos for display of percentages of composition of sets. Beginning with this chart, what displays here will be updated regularly as new data for successive days is obtained. I will keep earlier versions of this chart (and other charts for which I will now begin the same updating process), but won’t keep display of the archived versions active unless there arises some distinction that might not be immediately evident from an updated graph. [ARL 2020 Apr 11]

World — Cases & Deaths: Logarithmic Scale

World Cases & Deaths Logarithmic 04.13

World COVID-19 cases and deaths for March 1 through April 13, charted on a logarithmic scale. The slope has come down ever so slightly during early April, but still rises at a pace too high for comfort. [ARL 2020 apr 13]

World — Cases: Days to Double

World Cases - Days to Double
And then this, charted for March 1 through April 9, this time showing the trend in worldwide COVID-19 cases by determining the number of days that it would take for the case count to double, if the most recent daily rate on increase were to remain constant. [ARL 2020 apr 10]


— Global Regions —

European Region
Region of the Americas
Western Pacific Region
Eastern Mediterranean Region
South-East Asia Region
African Region


European Region

— European Region – New Cases —

European Cases New 04.25New COVID-19 cases in the European region peaked somewhat during the first two weeks of mid-April. But the trend flattened the third week. Meanwhile, new cases for the European region dropped from 55.4% of global new cases as of April 1 to only 40.2% as of April 25. Stay tuned. [ARL 2020 Apr 25 CDST 15:49]

— European Region – Daily Deaths —

European Deaths Daily 04.25Trends in daily deaths tend to follow trends in new cases by 1-2 weeks. Even so, the possible plateau in new COVID-19 cases seen during the 3rd week of April for the European region may be emerging in the trend of daily deaths. Meanwhile, daily deaths for the European region dropped from 81.0% of global daily deaths as of April 1 to only 50.9% of global daily deaths as of April 25. Stay tuned. [ARL 2020 Apr 25 CDST 16:10]


Region of the Americas

Region Americas Cases New 04.25Did new COVID-19 cases in the Region of the Americas peak in mid-April, or have they only reached a plateau? The final week of April may tell us. Stay tuned. Meanwhile, new cases for the Region of the Americas rose from 35.4% of global new cases as of April 1 to 46.7% as of April 25. As of April 25, the European Region and the Region of the Americas together accounted for 86.8% of new cases globally. [ARL 2020 Apr 25 CDST 16:40]

Region Americas Deaths Daily 04.25Daily deaths in the Region of the Americas have not yet peaked; the count merely slackened slightly in mid-April, then has continued rising. Daily deaths for the Region of the Americas has risen from only 13.5% of global daily deaths as of April 1 to 44.5% of global daily deaths as of April 25. As of April 25, the European Region and the Region of the Americas together accounted for 95.4% of daily deaths globally. [ARL 2020 Apr 25 CDST 17:07]


Western Pacific Region


Eastern Mediterranean Region


South-East Asia Region


African Region


Disclaimer — Any analysis, comment, conclusions or other content herein is completely of a personal nature intended for the private use of the author. It should not be represented nor used as actuarial or other professional advice. Links to other websites do not connote endorsement of the content of those sources.
not the future expected

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