COVID-19 — Personal Notes

Countries (ex USA)

Canada · Finland · Mexico
Spain · United Kingdom


Canada (CA)

Canada Cases New 04.22In Canada, the trend for new COVID-19 cases may have reached a plateau since the beginning of April, but it is still too early to relax. [ARL 2020 Apr 22 CDST 18:28]


Finland (FI)

FI Cases New 04.22For new COVID-19 cases in Finland, a linear fit to the data would slope up toward 200 per day. As charted here, a 5th-degree polynomial fit also rises. Thankfully, although such tools can help illustrate trends, the infectious spread of a virus is neither linear nor according to a polynomial function. More importantly, the general decline since early April might well be the result of efforts to curb the spread of the coronavirus, in which case further subsiding might be hoped for. Stay tuned … [ARL 2020 Apr 22 CDST 17:54]


Mexico (MX)

Mexico Cases New 04.22Coming into the final week of April, Mexico is looking at the worst scenario for new COVID-19 cases: rapid acceleration, indicating broad, open spreading. Left unchecked, this chart warns of a looming disaster. [ARL 2020 Apr 22 CDST 19:15]


Spain (ES)

Spain Cases New 04.23On April 15, the U.S. Administration’s COVID-19 team claimed that the U.S. had passed the peak of new cases, although new cases remained stuck against decline well into the end of the month. By sharp contrast, the current trend in Spain displays the peak in new cases that the U.S. as yet has failed to see. [ARL 2020 Apr 23 CDST 17:18]


United Kingdom (UK)

UK Cases New 04.25The apparent peak in new COVID-19 cases in the United Kingdom in mid-April might be little more than a one-time spike probably arising from a reporting anomaly. Treating that one day as an outlier for purposes of judging the prevailing trend, the trend for UK new cases may have been at a plateau through April. By contrast, see the peak in the trend for Spain. [ARL 2020 Apr 25 CDST 18:20]


Disclaimer — Any analysis, comment, conclusions or other content herein is completely of a personal nature intended for the private use of the author. It should not be represented nor used as actuarial or other professional advice. Links to other websites do not connote endorsement of the content of those sources.
not the future expected

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